Edition: Waiting for Chaos

IT HASbdelhak Najib doesn’t beat around the bush. Far from there. From the very beginning, he affirms this cruel truth: the world as we know it today is in a phase of declared collapse. In support of his numerous and documented theses, the philosopher lists all the numbers that testify to the catastrophe hanging over us due to excessive growth, due to this unbridled impulse in the face of one of the worst economic crises that has hit the world since then. 2008, and which the media and governments are not paying attention to, headlong headlong towards the abyss, also due to the lack of the most important raw material, which has all reached its tipping point, this tipping point without the slightest hope of remission.

crucial moment

In this sense, in order to have a clear idea of ​​the situation in which we are today, the author proposes to list all the catastrophic figures of the planet Earth.
-Today, the mass of a person is ten times the mass of all wild land mammals. The mass of domestic animals is 24 times the mass of wild land mammals.
-Today, insect biomass has decreased by 80% in less than 30 years.
-Today, the marine animal population has declined by 49% from 1970 to 2012.
-In 2050, we will see the likely disappearance of the last coral reefs and kelp meadows that make up the habitat of 25% of marine species.
-Today species extinction occurs 100-1000 times faster than the natural rate.
-Today, 58% of vertebrates have disappeared since 1970.
-Today, since 1970, 81% of vertebrates living in fresh water have disappeared.
-Today, 38% of land-dwelling vertebrates have disappeared since 1970.
-Today, since 1970, 36% of vertebrates living in the marine environment have disappeared.
-In 2020, 67% of vertebrates have already disappeared. That’s two-thirds of the population since 1970.
– Over the past two millennia, the mass of land plants has decreased by 45%, including 15% in the twentieth century.
-Today, for example, there are 421 million fewer birds in Europe compared to 1980. At that time their number exceeded 2 billion.
-Today, 85% of the energy used by people on Earth is of fossil origin: 33.28% oil, 28.11% coal, 24.13% natural gas versus only 86% hydroelectricity, 4.46% nuclear electricity, 3.16% renewable energy.
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major crisis

As you can see, the data presented here by Abdelhak Najib does not tolerate any shadow. The situation surpasses the worst forecasts of the most pessimistic scientists, casting over our heads the undoubted specter of a major crisis that could destroy the economic foundations of this lifeless civilization. But it’s not finished. The Waltz of Numbers goes even further:
-Today, fresh water resources have been reduced to a very dangerous level. What scientists call water stress is constantly increasing.
-Today, 2.1 billion people do not have drinking water at home.
-Today, 4.5 billion people do not have sanitation.
– By 2030, the global shortage of fresh water will be 40%.
-Today, agricultural resources have exceeded all limits to feed almost 8 billion people: by 2050, we will witness a doubling of the world’s meat production compared to 2000.
– In 2050, it will be necessary to increase the production of agricultural products in the world by 50% compared to 2012.
-Today, agriculture occupies a third of the vacant land. It is responsible for 80% of deforestation and consumes 70% of fresh water consumption.
-Today, 44% of the world’s cereal production is for livestock.
-Today, the production of farmed fish has exceeded the capture of wild fish.
-Today, harvested marine populations have declined by 89% compared to all recorded historical levels.
-Today, the total fish catch per capita is twice the sustainable catch for restocking.
– In 2050, there will be more plastic in the oceans than fish.
-Today, metal consumption has reached the point of no return: 26 elements are being depleted, including gold, copper, platinum, uranium, zinc and phosphorus.
-Today, in order to meet the demand for metals, by 2050 it will be necessary to extract the same amount of ores as in the last 7000 years.
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The worst is yet to come

The dark streak, as you can see from all these numbers (which we have carefully checked), continues to affect all aspects of human life, at all levels, in all directions. However, the mainstream media ignores all this. A way to look away and leave the nearly eight billion people living on earth today completely unaware of what threatens them in the short term. But we are still far away. Things are worse than we can imagine:
-Today, 40 billion tons of sand are used in the world, which leads to a reduction in sea sand. By 2100, there will be no sandy beaches left on the planet. In 2012 alone, almost 30 billion tons of sand were needed to produce concrete in the world.
-Today, the exploitation of the so-called rare metals (cobalt, lithium, rare earth elements, etc.) has increased dramatically. Every year it increases by 3-5%.
-Today, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is constantly increasing with an increase of more than 2% since 2017.
-Today, the increase in the concentration of methane in the atmosphere is 254%. These emissions are partly related to human activities, such as animal husbandry, rice cultivation and the use of fossil fuels. -Today a significant increase in the concentration of CO2, carbon dioxide. Its levels have increased by 121% compared to the Industrial Age.
– According to the World Bank, inaction in the face of global warming could push 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030.
-Today, the average rise in global sea level recorded by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since the 20th century is 20 centimeters. By 2100, this trend will only be confirmed as sea levels should continue to rise. The IPCC forecasts the level should still be between 26 and 82 cm compared to the recorded average for 1986-2005.
– The height of the world’s oceans will reach 2.9 meters, even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C. In this case, small island states would be at risk. And it will affect 137 million people worldwide. On the other hand, with a 2° Celsius rise in temperature, sea levels would rise by 4.7 meters, covering areas where 280 million people currently live. If the temperature exceeds 3°C, it will disrupt the daily lives of 400 million people, and the sea level will rise by 6.4 meters.
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Serious social inequality

All these data, presented by Abdelhak Najib, are complemented by others, more complex, in all directions, and indicate a certain collapse in the next 20-30 years.
– Over the 1st century, the world’s population increased from 1.8 billion to 7.7 billion. According to some forecasts, by 2050 there will be more than 12 billion.
-Today the exploitation of the planet’s resources is red. In 1970, 22 billion tons of raw materials were mined. In 2010, 70 billion tons were mined. In 2050, this figure will reach 180 billion tons of extracted raw materials.
This increase in world production has led to serious social inequalities. The gap between rich and poor is immeasurable: in 2013, the richest 85 people owned as much as the poorest half of humanity, or 3.5 billion people. In 2016, the 8 richest people in the world owned as much as the poorest half of humanity. Today, the richest 1% owns what the other 99% own.
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In light of these figures, we can confirm with Abdelhak Najib that we are in an over-acceleration of the destruction of life. Unseen since humans have existed on Earth. Is there a way to avoid the catastrophe that awaits us and our collapse? The simplest answer is: at all levels it is already too late. To find a planet Earth like it was 10,000 years ago, we need thousands of years of regeneration without humans, to see species resurrect and others born, adapting to the new parameters of the planet. Because despite everything that has been destroyed, there is no more hope.

decompose

However, according to Abdelhak Najib, there is only one way out for this humanity: economic recession at all levels. Which is an excluded and impossible option for the leaders of this world. They prefer this fast-paced rush with great growth, up to the point of final collapse. But there is no way back, because we do not have a reliable model of a dying society to follow. So we need to extract more raw materials? We need to produce more. Need to buy more. You must consume more. Knowing that the risk of an explosion is the same as the risk of an inevitable collapse. Today, the question is no longer whether there will be a collapse, but when it will take place? For the most optimistic: our thermo-industrial civilization built on oil and energy is doomed to collapse by 2050. Why?
To explain such a forecast, Abdelhak Najib argues that we must analyze the situation in the world in 2022 in order to understand why all indicators converge towards the end of the world and the return to pockets of persistent resistance, both local and scattered around the planet. It begins with an undeniable truth. According to many scientists, according to almost all research reports that have studied this issue, a very large financial crisis is predicted before 2030. With negative or zero interest rates in Europe and Asia, with these avalanches of record stock market indices, with this inexplicable lack of return of significant inflation in the midst of an economic recovery, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the next economic crash is already in place to plunge the planet into chaos. In its 2017 report, the IMF explains that if financial risks remain limited until 2020, a crisis is brewing if interest rates rise by 2025. It’s tomorrow. And this is inevitable.

* “Eclipse”. Abdelhak Najib. Orion editions. April 2022 Available in bookstores and Orion Médias.

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